Monad ($MON) Listing Scenarios: Deep Dive into MM Plays at Launch

Executive Summary

Yo, it's your OG again—the one who's been front-row for the bloodbaths and bonfires of crypto launches since the EOS ICO circus in 2017, when market makers (MMs) turned "decentralized" into "degen roulette." I've watched MMs like Wintermute and GSR orchestrate the ballet of bids and asks, pumping tokens to the moon on listing day only to ladder dumps that rekt 80% of retail in weeks.

Now, with Monad's mainnet eyeing September 30, 2025 and $MON token launch hot on its heels (total supply 100B tokens), the stage is set for a classic MM-driven spectacle. No live price yet—pre-market on MEXC teases $0.007–$0.02 entry, FDV ~$3B—but in this altseason frenzy (Index at 82, BTC.D <59%), MMs will treat $MON like a high-beta L1 piñata: Initial hype to onboard liquidity, then scripted volatility to extract max value.

This isn't prediction porn; it's survival intel—MMs don't build; they milk. Stack testnet bags now, enter launch smart, and exit before the ladder drops.

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The MM Playbook: How They Rig the $MON Launch Game

MMs (think Jump Trading, Cumberland, or Paradigm's in-house ops) aren't your friends—they're the casino house, providing liquidity on CEXs like Binance or Bybit while arbitraging the chaos. For a pre-mainnet L1 like Monad (testnet crushing 32M+ txs, 1.5M addresses), the listing is their canvas: Pump to create FOMO, stabilize to trap longs, then extract via controlled dumps.

Pre-Launch Setup (Now–Launch Day)

- **Order Book Seeding:** MMs seed with thin bids ($0.40–$0.60 on pre-market) to build depth without committing capital

- **Airdrop Farming:** Testnet points for 1.5M users create retail supply—MMs buy low from farmers, stack for post-listing arb

- **X Hype Amplification:** @monad's 500K followers, Monad Madness comp amplified via paid influencers

- **Futures OI:** Driving to $50M+ pre-open

Listing Mechanics

- **Opening Price:** $0.50–$1.00 (FDV $3B–$5B)

- **Circulating Supply:** 10–20% (10B–20B tokens)

- **MM Liquidity:** 80% initial liquidity on Binance spot/futures

- **Bot Spreads:** Tight spreads (0.5–1%)

- **Strategic Pumps:** "Strategic buys" (fake volume from OTC desks) hit +50–100% in hours, trapping retail at peaks

Post-Launch Extraction

- **Ladder Sells:** Sell 1% at +20%, 2% at +50%, etc. while defending supports with limit orders

- **Arb Opportunities:** Cross-exchange spreads (Binance vs. MEXC) and perps funding rates (short squeezes at 0.1–0.5%)

- **Fee Structure:** With 100B supply, MMs keep fees micro ($0.0001/tx), but volatility high to juice trading fees (0.02–0.05% per trade)

Exit for MMs

- **Timeline:** After 7–14 days

- **Method:** Unwind via OTC to institutions (e.g., BlackRock scouting L1s)

- **Result:** Leaving retail holding the bag

**OG Take:** MMs love Monad's profile—EVM-compatible, 10K TPS, VC pedigree—like Sui's 2023 launch (pumped 3x day 1, dumped 70% in weeks). But with altseason's $60B stablecoin flows, they'll over-extend the pump to onboard DeFi TVL. **Key: Watch Binance order books for $10M+ depth pre-launch—thin books mean rug risk.**---

On-Chain and Pre-Launch Pulse: Fuel for MM Games

Testnet's the MM's scouting report—32M+ txs, 564K contracts, 1.5M addresses scream adoption, but it's simulated fire. MMs are already positioning: Whale OTC buys from testnet farmers (est. 5–10% supply locked), and Paradigm's $225M ensures deep pockets for liquidity.

Testnet Metrics

- **Transactions:** 32M+ txs

- **Contracts:** 564K contracts

- **Addresses:** 1.5M addresses

- **TPS:** 10K TPS proven

- **Validators:** 57 validators decentralizing fast

Sentiment Analysis

- **X Buzz:** Bullish (@pipeline_xyz: "Monad's the EVM killer")

- **Dilution Fears:** 100B supply (like SOL's early days) give MMs ammo for dumps

- **VC Positioning:** Paradigm holds 20–30% with staggered unlocks

Liquidity Setup

- **Testnet TVL:** Simulated at $50M+ (Kintsu LSTs, Ambient DEX)

- **DeFi Priming:** Real DeFi post-launch preparation

- **Bridge Arbitrage:** MMs will arb testnet-to-mainnet bridges (LayerZero integrations) for early supply

Volume Tease

- **Pre-market OI:** MEXC ~$20M

- **Futures Perps:** Hinting 10x leverage

- **Day 1 Volume:** Could see $100M, but 70% MM-controlled

Whale Radar

- **VC Unlocks:** Staggered (Paradigm holds 20–30%)

- **Testnet Points:** 1.5M farmers create dump pressure

- **MM Strategy:** Buy low, sell high

**OG Take:** Testnet's 10K TPS proven, but MMs thrive on imbalance—retail airdrop dumps vs. VC stacks. With $3T stablecoin tx volume market-wide, Monad could see $100M Day 1 volume, but 70% MM-controlled. **Farm now (testnet.monad.xyz), but hedge 50% in stables.**---

Price Action Scenarios: MM-Driven Plays in Current Market Chaos

Current market? Altseason's mid-roar (BTC $117K stable, ETH/BTC >0.040), Fed cut Sept 17 juicing risk (Fear & Greed 52), and L1 rotation favoring speed (SOL outages, Sui lag). Monad's launch (Sept 30 mainnet, token drop imminent) drops into this: High-beta L1 in a liquidity flood, but 100B supply caps moonshots. MMs will script volatility—here's how, with tailored plays.

Scenario 1: Bull Pump (60% Odds – Altseason FOMO Ignites)

MM Play:

- Heavy buys on open ($0.50 entry) via OTC-fed bots

- Pumping +100–200% to $1.50–$2.00 in 24–48 hours

- Defend $1.00 support with $50M depth

- Squeezing shorts (perps funding +0.5%)

- Ladder partial sells at peaks, but re-buy dips to build TVL ($200M+ Q4)

Market Fit:

- Fed liquidity ($1T+ risk assets) + X hype (@monad's Madness comp) drives retail FOMO

- Stablecoin inflows ($60B Q3) flood Binance

- EVM ports (100+ dApps) onboarding devs overnight

Price Path:

- Open $0.50 → Day 1 $1.50 (+200%) → Week 1 $2.00 (TVL $100M) → EOY $3.00 (5x)

OG Play:

- Ape 30% at open, add 20% dip-buy at $0.80

- Sell 50% at $1.50 (trail stops +20%)

- Stake for 10% APY; rotate profits to ETH

- **Risk:** Overheat if BTC.D rebounds >60%

Scenario 2: Base Grind (30% Odds – Steady Rotation, No Euphoria)

MM Play:

- Moderate pump +50% to $0.75 on launch

- Tight spreads (0.5%) to stabilize around $0.60–$0.80

- Controlled sells (1–2% daily) fund liquidity adds

- Arbing perps vs. spot (0.1% spreads)

- Focus on TVL build ($50–$100M) over hype, with OTC unwinds to VCs

Market Fit:

- BTC consolidates $120K

- Capital leaks from SOL/ETH (ETF rotations) but no retail mania

- Testnet traction (32M txs) draws devs, but 100B supply tempers greed

Price Path:

- Open $0.50 → Day 1 $0.75 (+50%) → Week 1 $0.70 (consolidate) → EOY $1.20 (2x)

OG Play:

- DCA 40% across launch week (buy $0.50–$0.60)

- Hold core 50%, stake for yields

- Monitor Binance OI >$100M for upside; exit 20% if TVL < $50M

- **Risk:** Stagnation if mainnet bugs delay

Scenario 3: Bear Trap/Dump (10% Odds – Macro Hiccup or Dilution Panic)

MM Play:

- Flash pump +30% to $0.65

- Aggressive sells (ladder 5–10% at peaks) triggering panic dumps from airdrop farmers

- Defend $0.30 floor minimally

- Arbing cross-exchange (MEXC vs. Binance) for 2–5% gains

- Quick OTC flips to shorts, extracting from leveraged longs

Market Fit:

- Fed stalls or geopolitics spike (e.g., tariffs)

- BTC dips to $100K, pulling L1 liquidity

- 100B supply + vesting fears (VC unlocks) amplify retail exodus

Price Path:

- Open $0.50 → Day 1 $0.65 (+30%) → Week 1 $0.35 (-30%) → EOY $0.40 (flat)

OG Play:

- Minimal 10% exposure; farm airdrop only, sell into pump

- Short perps at $0.70 (leverage 5x, cover at $0.40)

- Hedge full with BTC; avoid if testnet DAUs <500K pre-launch

- **Risk:** Prolonged bear if mainnet delays to 2026

OG Take: Bull/base rule in this greed (52 F&G)—Monad's EVM + speed fits L1 rotation perfectly. MMs will pump hard Day 1 (Sui playbook), but 100B supply means no 100x; aim 3–5x realistic. **Watch Binance books for MM depth ($50M+ = bull) and X for airdrop dumps (@monad alerts).**---

Risks in the MM Game: Don't Get Played

MMs are sharks—$MON's risks amplify their edge:

Dilution Dump

- **100B supply + airdrop** (1.5M farmers) floods liquidity

- **MM Strategy:** Buy low, retail sells high

Launch Fumbles

- **Mainnet bugs** (testnet glitches) trigger 50% corrections

- **MM Strategy:** Arb the panic

Competition Crush

- **Solana/Sui steal TVL** if Monad's 10K TPS underdelivers

Macro Whipsaw

- **Fed delay tanks risk;** MMs short the euphoria

**OG Take:** I've bled on MM ladders—cap Monad at 10–15%, farm testnet freebies, and always have a stop (e.g., -20%). If OI spikes >$200M pre-launch, it's MM fuel—ride it, but cash out peaks.

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The OG Verdict: MM Scenarios Make $MON a Calculated Ape

Monad's launch is MM theater: Pump on hype, grind on adoption, trap on fear—but in altseason's flow, the bull script wins 60%. With testnet fire (32M txs) and $225M runway, $MON could 3–5x from $0.50 open to $2 EOY, capturing DeFi's speed hunger.

Scenarios keep you ahead: Farm now, ape bull/base, fade bear. In this market (Fed juice, L1 rotation), Monad's the EVM disruptor—position for the play, not the prayer.

Strategic Positioning

- **40% stables hedge**

- **30% Monad launch bag**

- **20% SOL/ETH**

- **10% memes**

Key Monitoring Points

- Track @monad for drop deets

- Binance for MM tells

- OI spikes >$200M pre-launch

$MON's not a sure thing—it's the MM game you learn to win.

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