Altcoin Season Outlook: October 26–November 1, 2025

Executive Summary

The cryptocurrency market navigated a **consolidation phase** during October 26–November 1, 2025, showing tentative signs of altcoin season revival amid stabilizing conditions following the October 10 flash crash that erased $400 billion in market capitalization due to President Trump's 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports.

The recovery story: Bitcoin rebounded from $108,000 to $114,000, easing some pressure, while the launch of CME's Solana and XRP futures options on October 13 boosted liquidity for altcoins. Major events like the Blockchain Futurist Conference USA (November 5–6) and ETH Latam 2025 highlight ongoing ecosystem innovation.

Market signals: Total market cap hovered between $3.54–$3.63 trillion (down 7% WoW), with oversold RSI (35–40) indicating potential for a rebound if RSI climbs above 50. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) rose to 59.9–65%, reflecting a flight to safety but capping at 60% resistance—a drop below 57% could signal capital rotation to altcoins.

Bottom line: The altcoin season isn't dead—it's consolidating. With BTC.D at 58.5–59%, oversold metrics, and APAC strength ($2.36T, +69% YoY), savvy traders have a strategic window to position for a potential Q4 pivot if tariffs ease.

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Market Context: Key Indicators

Total Market Capitalization

- **Range:** $3.54–$3.63 trillion

- **Change:** Down 7% week-over-week from the dump's impact

- **RSI:** 35–40 (bearish, oversold conditions)

- **Signal:** Potential for rebound if RSI climbs above 50

Bitcoin (BTC)

- **Price:** $104,723–$106,564

- **Status:** Consolidating after tariff-induced volatility

- **Support:** $350 million in mid-September ETF inflows

- **Resistance:** Near $120,000

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)

- **Current:** 59.9–65%

- **Change:** Up 4.5% since May

- **Analysis:** Flight to safety but capping at 60% resistance

- **Signal:** A drop below 57% could signal capital rotation to altcoins

Altcoin Season Index

- **Current:** 30–48/100

- **Change:** Down from 69 last week

- **Status:** Firmly in "Bitcoin season" territory

- **Performance:** Fewer than 75% of top 50 coins outperformed BTC over 90 days

TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC)

- **Current:** $1.6 trillion

- **Change:** -5% WoW but +50% since July

- **Support:** Holding $1.58 trillion support

- **Pressure:** Unlocks like SUI's $145 million on October 1

Macro Catalysts

- **Fed Rate Cut:** Dovish 25 bps cut (September 18), offset by tariffs

- **ETH ETFs:** $547 million net inflows on September 29

- **BTC ETFs:** $23.81 million on October 9

On-Chain Activity (APAC)

- **Growth:** $2.36 trillion in on-chain value received (+69% YoY)

- **Driver:** India's $1.2 trillion (+99% YoY)

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

- **Current:** 26–39 (fear)

- **Change:** Down 33 WoW

- **Context:** $19 billion in liquidations underscoring leverage risks

Key Events

- **Blockchain Futurist Conference USA:** November 5–6

- **ETH Latam 2025:** Ongoing

- **UNTOLD Dubai Festival 2025:** Fostering innovation

- **Thailand Blockchain Week 2025:** Networking opportunities

Outlook

Oversold metrics and APAC strength suggest a **Q4 pivot** if tariffs ease.

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Key Narratives Driving Altcoins

The dump crushed retail FOMO, but **X resilience shines** in memes and AI hybrids, while RWA/DeFi attract institutions. Memes hold 62.8% Q1 interest but lost 35% mindshare to DeFi; AI/RWA command $33–$36 billion caps.

Meme Coins and Retail Frenzy

**Overview:** Memes retained 62.8% Q1 interest despite 95% rugs, but the dump crushed Solana memes (-21–30%).

**Key Drivers:**

- **PEPE volumes:** $1.34 billion (+20% WoW > SHIB's $198 million -40%)

- **DOGE:** -20% volumes post-Musk

- **X favorites:** $MFUN (1.7M users, prediction markets) and hybrids like $KIZUNA (AI-meme)

- **Presale gems:** Arctic Pablo (+400% presale), Brett (+12,800% Base) blend GameFi

- **Mindshare leaders:** POPCAT/$GOAT 35% mindshare, $NUT +22% addresses

- **Emerging plays:** $WINS (sports exchanges), Little Pepe (+36% presale, 60x YE)

BNB Chain activity: BNB chain saw a surge in Chinese-themed meme coins starting early October 2025, driven by viral trader videos and Binance endorsements.

X Sentiment:

- *@0xDonmike:* Discussions around whether altcoins will "pump" in October are prevalent, with some analysts predicting a strong altseason.

- *@PapiriLuis:* 3 Meme Coins to Watch in October 2025: Manyu ($MANYU): +203% in Sept, $56M cap; BurnedFi ($BURN): +2,385% spike in a day, $3.19; Memecore ($M): +230% in Sept, nearing ATH at $2.99.

- *@beincrypto:* Market rotates from meme coins, asking what's the best crypto to buy before October's altcoin season? #LTC.

- *@earnforex:* The government & IRS needs the crypto bullrun to end before December so they can have everyone pay taxes on there crypto. I truly believe the bullrun will end in October 2025. And I do believe there will still be a meme coins and altcoin season.

- *@GamingWithZoom0:* Think we did have altcoin season last year. It was with meme coins. Despite the fundamentals it's always about the new trend or new coin. Think this year will be quiet until October!

- *@btccultureclub:* We are in #Bitcoin season for now. We are on the climb to #Altcoin season but I would say it will happen pushing into October.

- *@kurbs_sol:* [Additional context on Solana meme activity]

**Risks:** 35% mindshare to DeFi; SHIB -40% signals hype fade.

AI and Decentralized Intelligence

Overview: AI (TAO, FET) $36.8 billion sector (+13% MoM), blending memes (62.8% Q1 interest).

Key Drivers:

- *@ZssBecker* (+7K likes): ASI Chain/AI agents (Virtuals, ai16z); TAO +32% addresses

- Terminal of Truths AI-meme; $KIZUNA decentralized AI meme

- *@voi6:* AI/crypto collabs; no-code adoption

Risks: Overvaluation post-dump.

RWA Tokenization and DePIN

Overview: RWA (ONDO, LINK), DePIN (TAO, HBAR) Q4 leaders (365% Q1 returns, $55–$72 billion TVL).

Key Drivers:

- BlackRock/Coinbase T-bills

- HBAR Google/IBM DePIN

- LINK CCIP $95–$100 billion TVS (+$5 billion WoW)

- X Q4 bull case, tokenized assets $5.6 billion ATH

**Risks:** Regulatory delays.

Gaming and Web3

**Overview:** GameFi (IMX, GALA) TON/Solana ties, $22.5 billion sector.

**Key Drivers:**

- Animoca airdrops +32% GALA volumes

- $WKC $7.12 billion MC

- X P2E $CYBPE

**Risks:** Airdrop dumps.

DeFi 2.0 and Layer-2 Scaling

**Overview:** DeFi Pendle ($10.8 billion TVL), Aave; Solana Alpenglow 65,000 TPS.

**Key Drivers:**

- Arbitrum $13.2 billion TVL (+12% MoM)

- DeFi TVL $140 billion

- Uniswap/Compound regulatory boost

Risks: ETH +130K supply inflation.

X Sentiment Mix

X sentiment mixes dump panic (*@shahidaasi:* $250B wipeout) with altseason calls (*@Ashcryptoreal:* 30+ ETFs, trillions inflow); memes/AI hybrids like $KIZUNA trend amid tariffs.

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On-Chain Activity Highlights

On-chain data for October 26–November 1, 2025, reflects **cautious accumulation post-dump**.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)

- **Current:** 58.5–59%

- **Change:** Up from 57.3% mid-September

- **Resistance:** 60%

- **Downside:** 55–57%

- **Whale activity:** Outflows ($70M) and 90% holdings in profit indicate rotation

- **Wallet activity:** 1,000+ BTC wallets down 6% MoM

- **Analysis:** Break below 57% solidifies altcoin season; RSI (48) bearish for BTC.D

Ethereum (ETH)

- **Price:** $3,816–$4,599

- **Status:** Consolidating post-dump

- **ETF Inflows:** $3.2 billion August ETF inflows (with $547 million net inflows on September 29, led by BlackRock's $154 million and Fidelity's $202 million)

- **Staking:** 13.5% supply staked (29M ETH)

- **Exchange balances:** 6-year lows (7.5%)

- **Daily active addresses:** +25% to 650K

- **ETH/BTC ratio:** 0.036

- **Net supply:** +130K ETH

- **Analysis:** Staking and low balances signal HODLing; RSI (58) and MACD target $4,750–$5,000 if blobs saturate (3/block), though ETF outflows cap near-term upside

Solana (SOL)

- **Price:** $161.71–$164.71

- **Resistance:** Testing $236 resistance (post-dip from $220 early September)

- **TVL:** $12.27–$13.38 billion (+57% since June, ATH $13.38 billion)

- **Whale wallets:** 6,300+ wallets with 10K+ SOL

- **Daily active addresses:** +35% to 2.7M

- **Avg. fee:** $0.0048 (down 71%)

- **Transactions:** 14M transactions (+30% MoM)

- **Corporate treasuries:** $1.8B

- **Alpenglow:** 65,000 TPS

- **Source:** [changelly.com](https://changelly.com)

- **Analysis:** $1.3B SSK ETF inflows and hodler net +105% target $250–$270; RSI (62) bullish

Chainlink (LINK)

- **Price:** $15.93–$16.63

- **Resistance:** Testing $21.50–$22 resistance

- **TVS:** $95–$100 billion TVS Q3 (ATH $100 billion on September 12)

- **Whale activity:** 1.3M tokens ($33M) whale buys

- **Active addresses:** +28% WoW

- **Supply in profit:** 63%

- **Volume:** +7x to $2.8 billion

- **DeFi TVL:** Secures 68% DeFi TVL ($90 billion)

- **Source:** [finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com)

- **Analysis:** CCIP/Metis integration targets $22–$25; RSI (57) supports $25–$30 by year-end

XRP

- **Price:** $2.86–$3.07

- **Resistance:** Near $3.07 resistance

- **Tokens held:** 48.5 billion tokens held

- **Upbit volume:** +28%

- **Exchange outflows:** +15% WoW

- **Address growth:** 17% address growth

- **UXRP ETF:** $1.4B inflows

- **Source:** [fool.com](https://fool.com)

- **Analysis:** Commodity reclassification targets $3.15–$3.70; RSI (55) room for $4 by Q4

Meme Coins

DOGE/SHIB/PEPE:

- **DOGE:** Volumes down 20% WoW

- **SHIB:** 1.6T volume (down 40%)

- **PEPE:** $1.34B volumes (up 20%, surpassing SHIB)

- **Source:** [binance.com](https://binance.com)

Solana Memes (BONK, WIF, $MFUN):

- **Address growth:** 25% address growth

- **$MFUN:** 15K+ daily users

- **X buzz:** $WOLFI, $CYBPE, $FUSAKA

- **Source:** [binance.com](https://binance.com)

- **Analysis:** FOMO drives volumes, but RSI 70+ risks dumps; Base's Brett (12,800%) shows chain diversity

Regional Activity (APAC)

APAC's 69% YoY growth ($2.36T) bolsters trends, though $4.5B unlocks add pressure.

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Strategy for the Week Ahead (November 2–8, 2025)

Position for **post-dump rebound**, eyeing BTC.D <57% and ETF inflows; key event: Blockchain Futurist Conference USA (November 5–6).

Portfolio Allocation

**Core Holdings (30–40%):**

- ETH ($3,816–$4,599) and SOL ($161.71–$164.71) for DeFi/institutional stability

**High-Conviction (15–20%):**

- LINK ($15.93–$16.63) and XRP ($2.86–$3.07) for RWA/utility

**Speculative Plays (10–15%):**

- Memes (PEPE, $MFUN, BONK) and AI/Gaming (TAO, IMX) for high-beta; cap at 15% due to volatility

**Stablecoin Buffer (20–30%):**

- Deploy into dips if BTC.D <57% or post-unlock clarity (EIGEN $65M October 15)

Entry/Exit Triggers

Entry:

- Increase alts if BTC.D falls below 57%

- Altcoin Season Index exceeds 60

- TOTAL2 close above $1.7 trillion confirms bullish momentum

**Exit:**

- Take profits if Altcoin Season Index surpasses 75

- BTC.D rebounds above 60%

- Monitor CPI aftermath for risk-off signals

Risk Management

- Use **dollar-cost averaging (DCA)** for volatile alts like SOL, LINK, and memes

- Set **stop-losses 5–10%** below key supports:

- $3,700 for ETH

- $160 for SOL

- $2.80 for XRP

- $15 for LINK

- Avoid leverage amid extreme fear (Index 27)

- Hedge with USDC against tariff risks

Monitoring Tools

- Track BTC.D, TOTAL2, and Altcoin Season Index on TradingView or CoinMarketCap for real-time shifts

- Use Santiment and Glassnode for on-chain metrics like whale flows, TVL, and active addresses

- Follow X for sentiment on memes, AI, and RWA (e.g., @CryptoWhale, @MemeMarketFun, @ZssBecker), but verify with on-chain data to filter noise

Sector Focus

**For Traders:**

- Swing trade meme coins (PEPE, $MFUN) but exit on parabolic moves (RSI >80) to avoid corrections

- Monitor BTC.D <57% for altseason entry signals

- Use DCA and stop-losses for volatile positions

**For Investors:**

- Prioritize AI tokens (TAO, FET) and RWA/DePIN (LINK, ONDO) for long-term growth potential

- Core holdings (ETH, SOL) for institutional stability

- Stablecoin buffer (20–30%) for strategic dips

30-Day Outlook (Q4 2025)

**Potential pivot if tariffs ease:** Oversold metrics and APAC strength suggest Q4 rebound

**Target levels:**

- ETH: $4,750–$5,000 (if blobs saturate)

- SOL: $250–$270 (hodler net +105%)

- LINK: $22–$25 (CCIP/Metis integration)

- XRP: $3.15–$3.70 (commodity reclassification)

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Conclusion

The week of October 26–November 1, 2025, highlighted **altcoin consolidation** as Bitcoin Dominance rose to 58.5–59%, the Altcoin Season Index dipped to 48–55, and TOTAL2 held at $1.6 trillion amid lingering tariff fears.

Related Articles

- Altcoin Season Outlook: October 19–25, 2025

- Bitcoin Dominance Analysis: Q4 2025 Outlook

- Meme Coin Market Analysis: PEPE, SHIB, and Emerging Trends

- AI Token Landscape: TAO, FET, and Decentralized Intelligence

- RWA and DePIN Sector Analysis: Q4 2025 Opportunities