Altcoin Season Outlook: November 2–8, 2025

Executive Summary

The cryptocurrency market exhibited **cautious recovery** in the week of November 2–8, 2025, following the lingering effects of the October 10 flash crash that obliterated $400 billion in market capitalization due to President Trump's 100% tariff on Chinese imports.

The recovery story: Bitcoin's modest rebound from $108,000 to $106,000 amid $524 million in BTC ETF inflows on November 11 (contrasting $107 million ETH ETF outflows) provided some stability, but altcoins faced headwinds from ongoing unlocks and fear-driven sentiment. Key events like the Blockchain Futurist Conference USA (November 5–6) and ETH Latam 2025 spotlighted innovation in Web3 and DeFi, while the CME's Solana and XRP futures options launch (October 13) continued to enhance altcoin liquidity.

Market signals: Total market cap stabilized at approximately $3.54 trillion (down 0.54% over 24 hours but +14.82% YoY), with oversold RSI (35–40) signaling potential rebound if RSI reclaims 50. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) climbed to 59.94–65%, reflecting safe-haven flight but capping at 60% resistance—a reversal below 57% could trigger altcoin rotation.

Bottom line: The altcoin season is under pressure but not dead. With BTC.D at 58.5–59%, extreme fear (Index 24–26), and selective accumulation, savvy traders have a strategic window to position for potential recovery, but caution is warranted given ongoing unlocks and ETF outflows.

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Market Context: Key Indicators

Total Market Capitalization

- **Current:** Approximately $3.54 trillion

- **Change:** Down 0.54% over the last 24 hours but +14.82% YoY

- **RSI:** 35–40 (bearish, oversold conditions)

- **Signal:** Potential rebound if RSI reclaims 50

Bitcoin (BTC)

- **Price:** $102,750–$106,000

- **Status:** Consolidating after tariff-induced volatility

- **Support:** $350 million in mid-September ETF inflows

- **Pressure:** $418 million outflows on September 26

- **ETF Inflows:** $524 million on November 11

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)

- **Current:** 59.94–65%

- **Change:** Up 4.5% since May

- **Analysis:** Safe-haven flight but capping at 60% resistance

- **Signal:** A reversal below 57% could trigger altcoin rotation

Altcoin Season Index

- **Current:** 26–30/100

- **Change:** Down from 69 last week

- **Status:** Firmly in "Bitcoin season" territory

- **Performance:** Fewer than 75% of top 50 coins outperformed BTC over 90 days

TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC)

- **Current:** $1.155–$1.6 trillion

- **Change:** -5% WoW but +50% since July

- **Support:** Defending $1.58 trillion support

- **Pressure:** Unlocks like SUI's $145 million on October 1

Macro Catalysts

- **Fed Rate Cut:** Dovish 25 bps cut (September 18), offset by tariffs

- **ETH ETFs:** Faced $107 million outflows on November 11

- **BTC ETFs:** Saw $524 million inflows on November 11

On-Chain Activity (APAC)

- **Growth:** $2.36 trillion in on-chain value received (+69% YoY)

- **Driver:** India's $1.2 trillion (+99% YoY)

- **Source:** Chainalysis data

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

- **Current:** 24–26 (extreme fear)

- **Change:** Down 33 WoW

- **Context:** $19 billion in liquidations highlighting leverage risks

Key Events

- **Blockchain Futurist Conference USA:** November 5–6

- **ETH Latam 2025:** Ongoing

- **UNTOLD Dubai Festival 2025:** Fostering innovation

- **Thailand Blockchain Week 2025:** Networking opportunities

Outlook

Oversold metrics and APAC strength suggest a **Q4 pivot** if tariffs ease.

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Key Narratives Driving Altcoins

The dump crushed retail FOMO, but **X resilience shines** in memes and AI hybrids, while RWA/DeFi attract institutions. Memes hold 62.8% Q1 interest but lost 35% mindshare to DeFi; AI/RWA command $33–$36 billion caps.

Meme Coins and Retail Frenzy

Overview: Memes retained 62.8% Q1 interest despite 95% rugs, but the dump crushed Solana memes (-21–30%).

Key Drivers:

- **PEPE volumes:** $1.34 billion (+20% WoW > SHIB's $198 million -40%)

- **DOGE:** -20% volumes post-Musk

- **X favorites:** $MFUN (1.7M users, prediction markets) and hybrids like $KIZUNA (AI-meme)

- **Presale gems:** Arctic Pablo (+400% presale), Brett (+12,800% Base) blend GameFi

- **Mindshare leaders:** POPCAT/$GOAT 35% mindshare, $NUT +22% addresses

- **Emerging plays:** $WINS (sports exchanges), Little Pepe (+36% presale, 60x YE)

BNB Chain activity: BNB Chain saw a surge in Chinese-themed meme coins starting early October 2025, driven by viral trader videos and Binance endorsements.

X Sentiment:

- Discussions around whether altcoins will "pump" in October are prevalent, with some analysts predicting a strong altseason.

- *3 Meme Coins to Watch in October 2025:* Manyu ($MANYU): +203% in Sept, $56M cap; BurnedFi ($BURN): +2,385% spike in a day, $3.19; Memecore ($M): +230% in Sept, nearing ATH at $2.99.

- Market rotates from meme coins, asking what's the best crypto to buy before October's altcoin season? #LTC.

- *@earnforex:* The government & IRS needs the crypto bullrun to end before December so they can have everyone pay taxes on there crypto. I truly believe the bullrun will end in October 2025. And I do believe there will still be a meme coins and altcoin season.

- *@GamingWithZoom0:* Think we did have altcoin season last year. It was with meme coins. Despite the fundamentals it's always about the new trend or new coin. Think this year will be quiet until October!

- *@btccultureclub:* We are in #Bitcoin season for now. We are on the climb to #Altcoin season but I would say it will happen pushing into October.

**Risks:** 35% mindshare to DeFi; SHIB -40% signals hype fade.

AI and Decentralized Intelligence

**Overview:** AI tokens like Bittensor (TAO) and Fetch.ai (FET) drive a $36.8 billion sector (up 13% month-over-month), blending with memes for 62.8% Q1 interest.

Key Drivers:

- *@ZssBecker* (7K+ likes): ASI Chain and AI agents (Virtuals, ai16z); no-code platforms and TAO's 32% address growth fuel adoption

- Terminal of Truths' AI-meme hybrid and $KIZUNA decentralized AI meme target moonshots

**Risks:** Overvaluation risks corrections if AGI hype outpaces delivery.

RWA Tokenization and DePIN

Overview: RWA (ONDO, LINK) and DePIN (TAO, HBAR) lead Q4 narratives, with 365% Q1 returns and $55–$72 billion TVL.

**Key Drivers:**

- BlackRock/Coinbase-backed tokenized T-bills yield real income

- Hedera (HBAR) integrates Google/IBM for DePIN

- Chainlink's CCIP secures $95.71–$100 billion TVS in Q3, up from $93 billion

**Risks:** Regulatory delays could slow inflows.

Gaming and Web3

**Overview:** GameFi (IMX, GALA) ties to TON/Solana ecosystems, with a $22.5 billion sector.

**Key Drivers:**

- Animoca's partnerships and airdrops spike GALA volumes 32%

- Wikicat ($WKC) eyes $7.12 billion MC

- X promotes P2E memes like $CYBPE

**Risks:** Post-airdrop dumps loom.

DeFi 2.0 and Layer-2 Scaling

**Overview:** DeFi rebounds with Pendle ($10.8 billion TVL) and Aave; Solana's Alpenglow targets 65,000 TPS.

**Key Drivers:**

- Arbitrum's $13.2 billion TVL (+12% MoM)

- Regulatory clarity boosts Uniswap/Compound

- DeFi TVL hits $140 billion

**Risks:** Ethereum's inflationary supply (+130K ETH) pressures L2s.

X Sentiment Mix

X sentiment, including Trump-linked meme controversies, amplifies speculative noise but underscores retail FOMO.

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On-Chain Activity Highlights

On-chain data for November 2–8, 2025, reveals **selective accumulation amid recovery**.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)

- **Current:** 58.5–59%

- **Change:** Up from 57.3% mid-September

- **Resistance:** 60%

- **Downside:** 55–57%

- **Whale activity:** Outflows ($70M) and 90% holdings in profit indicate rotation

- **Wallet activity:** 1,000+ BTC wallets down 6% MoM

- **Analysis:** A break below 57% reignites altcoin season; RSI (48) bearish for BTC.D

Ethereum (ETH)

- **Price:** $3,816–$4,599

- **Status:** Consolidating post-dump

- **ETF Inflows:** $3.2 billion August ETF inflows (with $547 million net inflows on September 29, led by BlackRock's $154 million and Fidelity's $202 million)

- **ETF Outflows:** $107 million on November 11

- **Staking:** 13.5% supply staked (29M ETH)

- **Exchange balances:** 6-year lows (7.5%)

- **Daily active addresses:** +25% to 650K

- **ETH/BTC ratio:** 0.036

- **Net supply:** +130K ETH

- **Analysis:** Staking and low balances signal HODLing; RSI (58) and MACD target $4,750–$5,000 if blobs saturate (3/block), though ETF outflows cap near-term upside

Solana (SOL)

- **Price:** $161.71–$164.71

- **Resistance:** Testing $236 resistance (post-dip from $220 early September)

- **TVL:** $12.27–$13.38 billion (+57% since June, ATH $13.38 billion)

- **Whale wallets:** 6,300+ wallets with 10K+ SOL

- **Daily active addresses:** +35% to 2.7M

- **Avg. fee:** $0.0048 (down 71%)

- **Transactions:** 14M transactions (+30% MoM)

- **Corporate treasuries:** $1.8B

- **Alpenglow:** 65,000 TPS

- **Analysis:** $1.3B SSK ETF inflows and hodler net +105% target $250–$270; RSI (62) bullish

Chainlink (LINK)

- **Price:** $15.93–$16.63

- **Resistance:** Testing $21.50–$22 resistance

- **TVS:** $95.71–$100 billion TVS Q3 (ATH $100 billion on September 12)

- **Whale activity:** 1.3M tokens ($33M) whale buys

- **Active addresses:** +28% WoW

- **Supply in profit:** 63%

- **Volume:** +7x to $2.8 billion

- **DeFi TVL:** Secures 68% DeFi TVL ($90 billion)

- **Analysis:** CCIP/Metis integration targets $22–$25; RSI (57) supports $25–$30 by year-end

XRP

- **Price:** $2.31–$2.86

- **Resistance:** Near $3.07 resistance

- **Tokens held:** 48.5 billion tokens held

- **Upbit volume:** +28%

- **Exchange outflows:** +15% WoW

- **Address growth:** 17% address growth

- **UXRP ETF:** $1.4B inflows

- **Analysis:** Commodity reclassification targets $3.15–$3.70; RSI (55) room for $4 by Q4

Meme Coins

**DOGE/SHIB/PEPE:**

- **DOGE:** Volumes down 20% WoW

- **SHIB:** 1.6T volume (down 40%)

- **PEPE:** $1.34B volumes (up 20%, surpassing SHIB)

**Solana Memes (BONK, WIF, $MFUN):**

- **Address growth:** 25% address growth

- **$MFUN:** 15K+ daily users

- **X buzz:** $WOLFI, $CYBPE, $FUSAKA

- **Analysis:** FOMO drives volumes, but RSI 70+ risks dumps; Base's Brett (12,800%) shows chain diversity

Regional Activity (APAC)

APAC's 69% YoY growth ($2.36T) bolsters trends, though $4.5B unlocks add pressure.

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Strategy for the Week Ahead

Position for **post-dump rebound**, eyeing BTC.D <57% and ETF inflows; key event: Blockchain Futurist Conference USA (November 5–6).

Portfolio Allocation

**Core Holdings (30–40%):**

- ETH ($3,816–$4,599) and SOL ($161.71–$164.71) for DeFi/institutional stability

**High-Conviction (15–20%):**

- LINK ($15.93–$16.63) and XRP ($2.31–$2.86) for RWA/utility

**Speculative Plays (10–15%):**

- Memes (PEPE, $MFUN, BONK) and AI/Gaming (TAO, IMX) for high-beta; cap at 15% due to volatility

**Stablecoin Buffer (20–30%):**

- Deploy into dips if BTC.D <57% or post-unlock clarity (EIGEN $65M October 15)

Entry/Exit Triggers

**Entry:**

- Increase alts if BTC.D falls below 57%

- Altcoin Season Index exceeds 60

- TOTAL2 close above $1.7 trillion confirms bullish momentum

**Exit:**

- Take profits if Altcoin Season Index surpasses 75

- BTC.D rebounds above 60%

- Monitor CPI aftermath for risk-off signals

Risk Management

- Use **dollar-cost averaging (DCA)** for volatile alts like SOL, LINK, and memes

- Set **stop-losses 5–10%** below key supports:

- $3,700 for ETH

- $160 for SOL

- $2.80 for XRP

- $15 for LINK

- Avoid leverage amid extreme fear (Index 24–26)

- Hedge with USDC against tariff risks

Monitoring Tools

- Track BTC.D, TOTAL2, and Altcoin Season Index on TradingView or CoinMarketCap for real-time shifts

- Use Santiment and Glassnode for on-chain metrics like whale flows, TVL, and active addresses

- Follow X for sentiment on memes, AI, and RWA (e.g., @CryptoWhale, @MemeMarketFun, @ZssBecker), but verify with on-chain data to filter noise

Sector Focus

**For Traders:**

- Swing trade meme coins (PEPE, $MFUN) but exit on parabolic moves (RSI >80) to avoid corrections

- Monitor BTC.D <57% for altseason entry signals

- Use DCA and stop-losses for volatile positions

- Watch for ETH ETF outflows ($107M on Nov 11) as potential risk signal

**For Investors:**

- Prioritize AI tokens (TAO, FET) and RWA/DePIN (LINK, ONDO) for long-term growth potential

- Core holdings (ETH, SOL) for institutional stability

- Stablecoin buffer (20–30%) for strategic dips

- Monitor BTC ETF inflows ($524M on Nov 11) as potential support signal

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