BTC.D is below 60: Are We Entering an Altcoin Season?

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market, is a critical indicator for assessing market dynamics and the potential for an altcoin season—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. As of August 14, 2025, BTC.D has shown significant shifts, dropping below 60% after peaking at 66.05% in June 2025, sparking speculation about an emerging altcoin season. This analysis explores the current BTC.D trend, key on-chain and market indicators, and whether conditions are ripe for a full-fledged altcoin season, with a focus on Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins driving momentum.

BTC.D Trend: A Declining Dominance

Recent Movements

Bitcoin Dominance has been on a downward trajectory since its June 2025 peak of 66.05%, falling to around 60.9% by mid-July and further to below 60% recently, marking a 7% decline in just over a month. This drop broke a three-year upward trendline, a pattern reminiscent of 2021 when a similar decline preceded a major altcoin rally. Technical analysis reveals:

• Weekly Chart: BTC.D completed a five-wave upward movement from 2022 to June 2025, followed by a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), signaling weakening momentum. The decline below 61% confirms a potential trend reversal, with support levels at 55.7% and 52.5%.

• Daily Chart: A five-wave decline since June suggests a short-term bounce near 62% is possible due to bullish RSI/MACD divergences, but the long-term trend remains bearish.

Historical Context

Historically, BTC.D drops below key levels (e.g., 60%) have preceded altcoin seasons, as seen in 2017–2018 and 2020–2021. In 2021, BTC.D fell from 70% to 40%, triggering massive gains in altcoins like AVAX and DOGE (140x+ returns). The current pattern mirrors 2021, with Crypto Rover noting a falling wedge breakout, suggesting BTC.D could drop to 52% or lower, fueling altcoin outperformance.

Signs of an Altcoin Season

Several indicators and market dynamics suggest an altcoin season is emerging, though it’s not yet fully confirmed:

Altcoin Season Index

The Altcoin Season Index, which tracks whether 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, is a key barometer. As of August 2025:The index sits at 51, a neutral zone, up from 37 in late July and 15 in early June. While below the 75 threshold for a confirmed altcoin season, the upward trend signals growing altcoin momentum.

Earlier peaks (e.g., 87 on December 4, 2024) showed strong altcoin rallies, but the current 51 indicates a transitional phase.

Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP)

The total altcoin market cap is nearing a breakout above $1.6 trillion, with a 40–46% increase in recent weeks. Small-cap altcoins have reclaimed the $280 billion resistance, with a bullish 1-2/1-2 wave structure suggesting parabolic growth. The ALTCAP’s ascending triangle pattern and bullish MACD crossovers indicate a potential rally to new highs.

Ethereum’s Leadership

Ethereum (ETH) is driving altcoin momentum, surging 30% in a week compared to Bitcoin’s 5%. Trading at $4,743–$4,785, ETH is nearing its ATH of $4,891.70, with $2.3 billion in ETF inflows and $16.5 billion in corporate treasury holdings.

On-chain metrics show:

• TVL: $96.444 billion, up 0.45% daily, with $6.15 billion in DEX volumes (up 52.32% weekly).

• Staking: 30% of ETH (33 million+) staked, reducing supply.

• Burns: 4.2 million ETH ($20B+) burned since EIP-1559, with 10,000 ETH burned weekly.

• ETH’s ETH/BTC ratio breaking year-long resistance signals altcoin outperformance.

Other Altcoins and Trading Volume

Layer-1 tokens like SUI (+36%), SEI (+41%), Solana (SOL, +20%), and XRP (targeting $5.81–$9) are outperforming Bitcoin. DeFi platforms like Avalanche and Arbitrum see rising TVL ($110B+ in July), and trading volumes are shifting to altcoin pairs on centralized and decentralized exchanges. Glassnode notes ETH’s perpetual futures volume surpassing Bitcoin’s, a first since 2022, indicating trader focus on altcoins.

Institutional and Regulatory Catalysts

Institutional capital is rotating into altcoins, with ETH ETFs seeing $1 billion daily inflows at peaks. Regulatory clarity from the Genius Act and SEC’s non-security stance on ETH boosts confidence. Crypto payroll adoption in regions like Argentina further drives altcoin demand.

Challenges to Altcoin Season

Despite bullish signals, hurdles remain:

• Bitcoin’s Resilience: BTC.D’s short-term bounce potential to 62% could delay altcoin gains. Bitcoin’s consolidation above $112,000–$123,500 drains liquidity from altcoins during sharp moves.

• Index Threshold: The Altcoin Season Index at 51 (needing 75) shows altcoins need broader outperformance.

• Volatility Risks: Profit-taking in altcoins at multi-month highs or macro shocks (e.g., unexpected Fed rate hikes) could stall momentum.

• Historical Cycles: Past altcoin seasons (2017, 2020) saw Bitcoin reclaim dominance post-rally, suggesting a potential BTC.D rebound.

Strategic OutlookTrading:

Monitor BTC.D support at 55.7%–52.5%; a breakdown could confirm altcoin season.

• Buy ETH on dips ($4,219–$4,332) targeting $5,000–$7,500. Consider SUI, SEI, or SOL for high-beta plays.

• Portfolio: Allocate 50% to ETH, 20% to L1s (SOL, ADA), 20% to DeFi (LDO, UNI), and 10% to Bitcoin to hedge.

• Watchlist: Track ALTCAP for a $1.6T breakout and Altcoin Season Index for a move above 75.

Conclusion

The BTC.D decline below 60%, coupled with ETH’s 30% rally, surging ALTCAP, and rising Altcoin Season Index (51), signals an emerging altcoin season, though not yet fully confirmed. On-chain strength, ETF inflows, and regulatory clarity bolster altcoins, particularly ETH, but Bitcoin’s resilience and market volatility pose risks. Investors should watch for a BTC.D breakdown below 55.7% and broader altcoin outperformance to confirm the season, positioning for gains in ETH, SOL, and DeFi tokens while managing risks.