Altcoin Season Outlook: June 29 - July 5, 2025

Market Dynamics

CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index:

The index stood at 24/100 on July 5, with only 24 out of the top 100 altcoins outperforming BTC over 90 days, confirming a Bitcoin Season. However, the index rose from 12 in April, indicating growing altcoin momentum.

TOTAL3 Chart (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH):

The TOTAL3 chart formed a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a key resistance neckline at $920 billion. A breakout could target $1.29 trillion, a 40% increase, signaling a potential altcoin season.

TOTAL2 Chart (Total Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC):

The chart broke out from a descending channel, mirroring early 2024 patterns that preceded a 60% altcoin rally. This supports a bullish outlook for altcoins.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D):

At 65.77%, BTC.D formed a double-top pattern with bearish RSI divergence, suggesting a likely drop below 65.4% to 63.11% or 60.27%. Historically, such declines have triggered altcoin seasons (e.g., 2021, 2023).

Top Performers: Beyond ETH and SOL, altcoins like ARB (+17%), ETHFI (+13%), EIGEN (+10%), XCN (+51.45% vs. BTC), OM (+ Auge (+50.09%), and JUP (+25.61%) outperformed, driven by ecosystem developments and memecoin hype.

Memecoin Influence

• Solana-based memecoins like BONK, PENGU, and FARTCOIN, and SUI-based Walrus (WAL) led the charge, with LetsBonk.fun and Pump.fun driving $695 million in combined daily volume. The memecoin market cap rose to $59.4 billion, up 4.1% week-on-week, fueling altcoin sentiment.

• Scams like CUBA and MALAYSIA saw sharp corrections after brief surges, highlighting the speculative nature of memecoins but also their role in attracting capital.

On-Chain and Market Sentiment

DeFi Volume:

DeFi protocols, particularly on Ethereum and Solana, generated $275 million in weekly transaction fees, with PancakeSwap and Pump.fun leading. This underscored altcoin ecosystem strength.

Capital Rotation:

Posts on X noted increasing capital flows to altcoins, with $1.2 billion in Ethereum ETF inflows and $500 million in Solana-based fund investments in June.

Macro Factors:

Rising U.S. inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts capped altcoin gains, but a potential U.S. crypto bill discussed during Crypto Week (July 1–5) boosted optimism.

Altcoin Season Outlook

Likely Scenario:

A BTC.D drop below 65.4% (60% probability) could trigger an altcoin season, with TOTAL3 breaking above $920 billion to target $1.29 trillion. ETH, SOL, and memecoins like BONK and PEPE are likely to lead, with ARB, ETHFI, and JUP also outperforming.

Key Catalysts:

Continued DeFi growth, memecoin volume, and a potential U.S. crypto bill could accelerate capital rotation.

Alternative Scenario:

If BTC.D holds above 66.5% (30% probability), Bitcoin’s dominance could delay an altcoin season, limiting ETH and SOL gains to 5–10%. This would require sustained BTC price strength above $110,000.

Neutral Scenario:

A range-bound BTC.D (65–66.5%) could keep altcoins in a consolidation phase, with selective outperformances in DeFi and memecoin sectors.

Probability: 10%, as technicals lean toward a BTC.D decline.

Key Factors to Watch

• BTC.D Movement: A drop below 65.4% is critical for altcoin season confirmation.

• Whale Activity: Monitor for further BTC whale transfers (e.g., the remaining 20,000 BTC from July 4 wallets), as exchange deposits could pressure BTC and boost altcoins.

• Macro Events: U.S. inflation data on July 8–9 and Federal Reserve commentary could impact risk-on assets like altcoins.

• Memecoin Volume: Continued growth in LetsBonk.fun and Pump.fun volumes could sustain SOL’s momentum and spill over to other altcoins.

• On-Chain Metrics: Rising active addresses and TVL for ETH and SOL indicate sustained ecosystem strength.