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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Movements and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin traded around $105,800 on July 2, down 1.39%, indicating a short-term correction within a consolidation phase. It remained within a tight range of $105,000–$108,000, with volatility easing as shown by narrowing Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.

Technical Outlook: Resistance: $109,000 is a key level to watch for a potential breakout toward the all-time high near $110,000.

Support: $102,000 is emerging as short-term support.

Bitcoin’s weekly chart showed a strong recovery candle, reclaiming losses from the prior two weeks, signaling bullish momentum. However, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 65.77% faced resistance at a trendline above 65%, with bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting a potential decline. A break below 65.4% could test 62%, potentially favoring altcoins.

A double-top formation and bearish RSI divergence on the BTC.D weekly chart indicate a possible reversal, which could trigger capital rotation to altcoins.

Altcoin Performance and Number Outperforming BTC:According to the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index on July 5, only 24 out of the top 100 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, signaling a strong Bitcoin Season (index value at 24/100). This is a significant drop from the annual peak of 87 on December 4, 2024, and a low of 12 on April 26, 2025.

Notable Outperformers:SYRUP, PENGU, and HYPE were among the top performers, with significant gains driven by speculative interest, hinting at early altcoin season signals.

Other altcoins like ARB (+17%), ETHFI (+13%), and EIGEN (+10%) surged, boosted by the Ethereum Europe Conference.

Solana-based memecoins like Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), and SUI-based Walrus (WAL) outpaced broader market gains in the last 24 hours of the period.

Technical Indicators for Altcoins:The TOTAL3 chart (market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) showed a transition from a bearish double-top pattern to a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with a key resistance neckline at $920 billion. A breakout could target $1.29 trillion, indicating a potential altcoin rally.

The TOTAL2 chart (total altcoin market cap excluding BTC) displayed a breakout from a descending channel, mirroring early 2024 patterns that led to an altcoin rally.

The Altcoin Season Index rose to 35 by early July, reflecting growing altcoin sentiment, though still in a downtrend.

DeFi and Airdrop Activity:DeFi protocols like PancakeSwap and Pumpfun drove transaction fees to a 2025 peak of over $275 million, with DeFi’s total trading volume at $798.09 trillion VND (35.15% of the crypto market’s 24-hour volume). This indicates strong altcoin ecosystem activity.

Airdrop activity boosted memecoin and altcoin interest, contributing to capital inflows.

Governance and Technology Updates:

Lido DAO implemented “dual governance,” allowing ETH stakers to influence decisions, potentially increasing Ethereum ecosystem activity.

BNB Chain’s Maxwell Hardfork (June 30) reduced block time to 0.75 seconds, enhancing altcoin transaction efficiency.

Capital Flows and Market Sentiment:Capital rotated back into altcoins and memecoins, with speculative tokens showing resilience despite Bitcoin’s dominance.

Rising U.S. inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts created macroeconomic uncertainty, but altcoins showed signs of strength, particularly Ethereum, with a 7% surge against BTC (ETH/BTC at 0.02549).

Technical Analysis InsightsBitcoin Dominance (BTC.D):

At 65.77%, BTC.D is testing a resistance trendline. A rejection could lead to a 36.91% drop to 42–45%, historically signaling an altcoin season.

A bearish reversal is supported by a double-top formation and RSI bearish divergence, with support at 63.11% or lower (60.27–55.36%).

Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP):

The ALTCAP chart completed a five-wave decline and broke out from a descending wedge, now in the fifth wave of an upward move, targeting $1.25 trillion. RSI and MACD show bullish divergences, supporting a potential rally.

ETH/BTC Pair:

Ethereum’s 7% gain against Bitcoin (0.02549 BTC) and breakout above the 50% Fibonacci level ($2,746) with a MACD buy signal suggest increasing altcoin strength.

TOTAL3/BTC:

A bullish divergence on the TOTAL3/BTC chart indicates altcoins may outperform BTC soon, with a potential 2x rally to April/May highs.

Number of Altcoins Outperforming BTCAs of July 5, only 24 out of the top 100 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, per the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index.

Specific outperformers included SYRUP, PENGU, HYPE, ARB, ETHFI, EIGEN, Pudgy Penguins, Fartcoin, and Walrus, driven by speculative interest and ecosystem developments.

Earlier in the year (e.g., February 2025), altcoins like XCN (+51.45% vs. BTC), OM (+50.09%), and JUP (+25.61%) showed triple-digit gains against BTC, indicating selective altcoin strength.

ConclusionFrom June 29 to July 5, 2025, Bitcoin maintained dominance (65.77%), but technical indicators like bearish RSI divergence and a potential BTC.D breakdown suggest an impending altcoin season. Only 24 altcoins outperformed BTC over 90 days, with speculative tokens and Ethereum ecosystem coins leading gains. The TOTAL3 and ALTCAP charts show bullish setups (Inverse Head and Shoulders, wedge breakout), and Ethereum’s strength against BTC signals growing altcoin momentum. While Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, a BTC.D drop below 65.4% could trigger capital rotation to altcoins, potentially sparking a broader rally.

Note: For the most accurate and up-to-date market data, consult platforms like CoinMarketCap or TradingView. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions, as crypto markets are highly volatile.