Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): A Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) Performance: June 29 - July 5, 2025

Price ActionPrice Range:

Bitcoin traded between $105,800 and $110,000, with a notable dip of 1.39% to $107,600 on July 4, driven by the reactivation of eight dormant whale wallets moving 80,009 BTC (valued at ~$8.69 billion). By July 5, BTC stabilized around $108,000, closing the week with a strong recovery candle on the daily and weekly charts.

Weekly Performance:

BTC posted a 2.5% gain for the week, recovering from a two-week correction in mid-June. The weekly chart displayed a bullish engulfing candle, signaling renewed buying pressure after testing the $102,000 support level.

Volatility:

Volatility contracted, as evidenced by narrowing Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, suggesting a consolidation phase. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $107,500 acted as dynamic support, while the 50-day SMA at $105,000 provided a stronger base.

Key EventsWhale Activity:

On July 4, eight Satoshi-era wallets, dormant for 14.2 years, transferred 80,009 BTC to modern P2WPKH addresses. Despite the massive volume, the lack of exchange deposits limited selling pressure, resulting in only a 2% price dip. This event underscored Bitcoin’s maturing liquidity, bolstered by $9.9 billion in BTC ETF inflows since May 1, 2025.

Institutional Influence:

Institutional accumulation continued, with BlackRock adding $3.85 billion in BTC to its holdings in June, stabilizing the market. CryptoQuant reported a 6-month high in whale accumulation ending in late June, though a slight reduction in whale holdings occurred by early July.

On-Chain Metrics:

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD):

Spiked to 17.5 million in Q2 2025 but dropped to 11 million by July 5, indicating episodic whale activity rather than sustained selling.

Exchange Netflows:

Net inflows to exchanges remained low at -2,500 BTC daily, suggesting minimal liquidation intent from large holders.

Realized Cap:

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization grew by 3.2% to $650 billion, reflecting increased hodling and new capital entering the market.

Technical AnalysisKey Levels:

Resistance:

$109,000 (weekly high) and $110,500 (all-time high from June 2025). A breakout above $110,500 could target $115,000–$120,000, aligning with Fibonacci extensions (1.618 level from the April low of $80,000).

Support:

$107,500 (20-day SMA), $105,000 (50-day SMA), and $102,000 (key psychological and Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level from the March–June rally).

Indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The daily RSI at 58 indicated neutral momentum, with no overbought or oversold conditions. A weekly RSI of 62 showed room for upside before hitting overbought territory (>70).

• MACD: The daily MACD remained above the signal line, with a bullish crossover on June 30, supporting short-term bullish momentum. However, diminishing histogram bars suggested weakening momentum, hinting at a potential consolidation or pullback.

• Bollinger Bands: Narrowing bands on the daily chart signaled low volatility, often a precursor to a significant breakout or breakdown.

Chart Patterns:

Bitcoin formed a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart, with convergence near $108,000. A breakout above $109,000 could confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below $107,000 might test $105,000.

• Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): June 29 - July 5, 2025BTC.D PerformanceLevel: Bitcoin Dominance closed the week at 65.77%, testing a key resistance trendline from its 2024 highs (67.5%). Despite a minor 0.5% decline from the weekly peak of 66.2% on July 2, BTC.D remained elevated, reflecting Bitcoin’s strength relative to altcoins.

• Weekly Trend: BTC.D formed a double-top pattern on the weekly chart at 66–67%, a bearish signal reinforced by bearish RSI divergence (lower RSI highs despite higher price peaks). This suggests weakening dominance and a potential shift of capital to altcoins.

Technical Analysis

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 66.5% (trendline resistance) and 67.5% (2024 high). A breakout above 67.5% could push BTC.D to 70%, signaling prolonged Bitcoin outperformance.

• Support: 65.4% (immediate support), 63.11% (50-week SMA), and 60.27% (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from the 2024 low of 52%). A drop below 65.4% could trigger an altcoin rally.

• Indicators:RSI: The weekly RSI at 68 showed bearish divergence, with lower momentum despite higher BTC.D levels. A drop below 65 could confirm a reversal.

• MACD: The weekly MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, indicating potential downside for BTC.D.

• Volume: Declining volume on BTC.D rallies suggested weakening buying pressure, supporting the bearish outlook.

Chart Patterns:

The double-top formation at 66–67% aligns with historical reversals in 2021 and 2023, which preceded altcoin seasons. A breakdown below 65.4% could target 62% or lower, historically a catalyst for altcoin outperformance.

Altcoin Context

The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index stood at 24/100 on July 5, with only 24 out of the top 100 altcoins outperforming BTC over 90 days, confirming a strong Bitcoin Season. However, rising altcoin sentiment (index up from 12 in April) and a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on the TOTAL3 chart (altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH) at $920 billion suggested growing altcoin strength. A breakout above $920 billion could target $1.29 trillion, potentially coinciding with a BTC.D decline.

Market Context and External Factors

• Whale Activity: The transfer of 80,009 BTC by dormant wallets on July 4 caused a temporary 2% price dip but had limited impact due to no exchange deposits. This event highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience, with $9.9 billion in ETF inflows and institutional accumulation (e.g., BlackRock’s $3.85 billion in June) absorbing shocks.

• Macro Environment: Rising U.S. inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts created uncertainty, capping BTC’s upside. However, posts on X noted a potential U.S. crypto bill gaining traction, which could boost sentiment if passed.

• Memecoin and Altcoin Activity: Platforms like LetsBonk.fun and Pump.fun drove memecoin volume, with tokens like BONK (+25.27%) and PEPE (+7.34%) outperforming. This suggests early capital rotation to altcoins, aligning with a potential BTC.D reversal.

Predictions for July 6 - July 12, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook

Bullish Scenario:

If BTC breaks above $109,000 (symmetrical triangle resistance), it could rally to $112,000–$115,000, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the April low. Increased ETF inflows and stable on-chain metrics (low exchange netflows) support this case.

A surge in trading volume and a daily RSI breakout above 60 would confirm bullish momentum.

Probability: 55%, assuming no major macro shocks or whale sell-offs.

Bearish Scenario:

A failure to hold $107,500 (20-day SMA) could see BTC test $105,000 or $102,000. A deeper correction to $100,000 is possible if whale transfers to exchanges increase or macro conditions worsen (e.g., stronger USD due to inflation fears).

Declining MACD histogram bars and narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest a potential pullback before a breakout.

Probability: 35%, given current institutional support and low selling pressure.

Neutral Scenario:

BTC may continue consolidating between $105,000–$109,000, with low volatility as the symmetrical triangle resolves. This scenario aligns with the current low-volume environment and neutral RSI.

Probability: 10%, as markets typically break out after prolonged consolidation.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Outlook

Bearish Scenario:

A breakdown below 65.4% is likely, given the double-top pattern and bearish RSI divergence. This could push BTC.D to 63.11% (50-week SMA) or 60.27%, triggering capital rotation to altcoins and potentially sparking an altcoin season.

The TOTAL3 chart’s bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders breakout supports this, with altcoins like ETH, SOL, and memecoins (BONK, PEPE) poised to outperform.

Probability: 60%, driven by technical signals and increasing altcoin sentiment.

Bullish Scenario:

If BTC.D breaks above 67.5%, it could rally to 70%, signaling prolonged Bitcoin outperformance. This would require sustained BTC price gains and minimal altcoin momentum, unlikely given current altcoin chart setups.

Probability: 30%, as institutional focus on BTC may wane with altcoin breakouts.

Neutral Scenario:

BTC.D could range between 65–66.5%, consolidating near the trendline resistance. This would delay an altcoin season but keep Bitcoin dominant.

Probability: 10%, as technical indicators lean bearish.

Key Factors to Watch

• Whale Movements: Monitor blockchain analytics (e.g., Whale Alert, Arkham Intelligence) for further transfers from the two remaining 10,000 BTC wallets linked to the July 4 event. Exchange deposits could trigger volatility.

• Macro Developments: U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary on July 8–9 could influence BTC’s direction. A hawkish stance may pressure prices, while crypto-friendly policy signals could boost sentiment.

• Altcoin Breakouts: A TOTAL3 breakout above $920 billion or ETH/BTC surpassing 0.026 could accelerate BTC.D’s decline, favoring altcoins.

• On-Chain Metrics: Watch for spikes in CDD or exchange netflows, which could signal whale selling or accumulation.